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Is Innovation Pharmaceuticals About To Break To The Upside?


Shares in Innovation Pharmaceuticals has been trending lower since the high was put in place on February 8th, currently 56% lower than the peak. Price action throughout the decline has traced out a falling wedge, an intrinsically bullish pattern which expects a bullish breakout of the wedge and a rally thereafter. With the trendlines circumscribing the wedge converging, price will be forced to break out one way or another in the next few days. There's good reason to believe the breakout will be to the upside.


Figure 1

Consider the daily chart in figure 1. Notice how volume contracted throughout the development of the wedge. This is typical volume behaviour to accompany this pattern and confirms the bullish sentiment. To continue confirming the pattern, volume should begin to expand on breakout and continue increasing as price rises. A minimum 1:1 price target can be derived from the falling wedge by measuring the vertical height of the wedge and projecting that upwards from the point of breakout, which will yield a target in this instance somewhere in the region of $0.4212 and $0.4496 (to be confirmed exactly when the breakout occurs).


Also superimposed on the chart in figure 1 are Bollinger bands set up with a 20-period moving average and volatility bands measuring 2 standard deviations above and below. Notice that instances before when price has tested the lower band have tended to coincide with lows in price, and support will normally be found. The stock is again testing the lower Bollinger band which when considered alongside support from the lower trendline, the bullish bias of the falling wedge and the volume confirmation, forms a reasonably compelling case for anticipating a significant rise in Innovation Pharmaceutical shares during the coming weeks.


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